Fall selling season = momentum. Inventory tightened, demand stayed strong, and buyers were competitive—especially for single-family homes. Condos continued their comeback with sharper activity and slightly faster market times.

Key Takeaways

“With just 1.3 months of inventory, the single-family market remains squarely in sellers’ territory.”

— Vanguard Properties

Single-family homes continue to appreciate modestly while selling faster than nearly any other major metro.
Condos are regaining traction, aided by reduced inventory and better buyer confidence.
Inventory constraints remain the headline story; with fewer than 250 single-family homes on the market citywide, pricing power still favors sellers.
Balanced market signals are emerging in the condo segment as sales volume accelerates into Q4.

	🏠 Single-Family Homes Q3 2025	🏢 Condos / TICs / Co-ops Q3 2025
Median Sales Price	$1,625,000 ↑ 3.2 % YoY	$1,089,800 ↓ 2.7 % YoY
Days on Market	13 — flat	37 ↓ 1 day YoY
$/Sq Ft	$988 ↓ 0.6 % YoY	$975 ↓ 2.1 % YoY
% of List Received (Avg)	113.2 % ↑ 1.3 %	100.9 % — flat
% Sold Over List	71.7 % —	32.3 % —
Contracts Signed	561 ↑ 4.1 %	716 ↑ 26.3 %
Properties Sold	530 ↑ 1.5 %	641 ↑ 16.5 %
# For Sale (EoQ)	243 ↓ 28.1 %	666 ↓ 20.7 %
Months’ Supply (MSI)	~1.3 —	~2.8 —

Source: Vanguard Properties – San Francisco Market Update (Q3 2025)

Neighborhood Trend Highlights for Q3 2025

Neighborhood / District	Median Price Change (QoQ)	Buyer Demand	Market Trend
Dolores Heights	▲ +3.0 %	Very Strong	High-end renovated homes continue commanding premiums
Noe Valley	▲ +2.8 %	Strong	Consistent single-family demand; low inventory
Castro / Eureka Valley / Duboce Triangle	▲ +2.4 %	Strong	Active market for renovated Victorians and condos
Bernal Heights / Glen Park	▲ +2.6 %	Strong	Limited supply; quick-moving single-family homes
Mission District	▲ +2.0 %	Moderate to Strong	Steady interest in boutique condos and modern homes
Potrero Hill	▲ +2.1 %	Moderate to Strong	Stable with demand for modern homes and condos
Nob Hill / Lower Nob Hill	→ Stable	Moderate	Condos see consistent activity; single-family limited

*All neighborhood statistics are sourced from the Vanguard Properties San Francisco Market Update (Q3 2025). Buyer demand and quarterly change metrics are based on district-level data and refined using SFAR MLS and historical neighborhood performance trends. Compiled & Presented by Mark D. McHale Real Estate | Updated October 2025.*

Supporting Indicators, Recent News & Signals

Median Price Maps: Compass’s San Francisco Neighborhood Map shows variation across districts — e.g. some lower-density neighborhoods still pulling $1,500+ / sq ft, while denser corridors remain in mid-$1,000’s range. Bay Area Market Reports

Price Resilience in SF vs Metro: While many Bay Area markets are softening, San Francisco has continued to see sales up ~5% YTD (Jan–July). SF Chronicle

Price Cuts Less Frequent in SF: Nationally, many homes are cutting prices; in SF only ~12% of listings did so (Aug 2025), reflecting seller confidence. SF Chronicle

AI / Tech Influx & Rent Pressure: The AI boom is layering demand pressure on neighborhoods close to transit and office hubs. Rents are already climbing, making areas like SoMa, Mission, and Central more attractive to investors. Business Insider

Reventure Forecasts: Some forecasts expect ~ –4.7% downward pressure over 12 months if inventory continues to grow. Newsweek

SF vs Pre-pandemic “Return to Normal”: Redfin’s analysis suggests that relative to income, SF home pricing is approximately back to pre-COVID norms. SF Gate

Development & Zoning Moves: New proposals for high-rise towers in SoMa and expanded density policies may shift supply dynamics in neighborhoods that have lagged. SF Chronicle

What this means heading into Q4 → early Q1

Single-family: Expect a seasonal listing drop in Nov–Dec, keeping MSI tight and overbids elevated on well-priced homes. With rates near 6.3%, we see stable to slightly rising prices through year-end for move-in-ready inventory; Jan usually resets with fresh supply. (Signals: Redfin city/county trendlines + PMMS.)
Condos/TICs: Q3’s contracts up ~26% YoY in Vanguard’s read should carry into early winter as buyers hunt deals and rates help monthly payments. Expect pricing mostly flat citywide with pockets of strength (renovated, boutique, view units) and continued discounting in high-HOA or high-density towers. (Signals: city DOM + Realtor.com fall patterns.)
Macro guardrails: Case-Shiller shows the metro cooled from spring peaks; if rates drift lower or hold, we expect transaction volume to improve over last winter, while price growth stays modest. Upside risks: AI-driven hiring + year-end equity comp. Downside risks: macro shocks that nudge rates or sentiment.

🧠 Market Takeaways

Buyers: be pre-underwritten; target homes with fewer bids (longer DOM, cosmetic needs, higher HOAs), and watch late-Q4 price improvements.

Sellers: prep + pricing discipline still win. Lean into condition, presentation, and neighborhood comps to capture over-ask outcomes.

Last updated October 14, 2025 – reflects Q3 2025 Vanguard Properties Market Data.

Want a neighborhood-specific update or home valuation?

SOURCES & CREDITS

Vanguard Properties — San Francisco Market Update (Q3 2025)
Bay Area Market Reports / Compass — neighborhood median-price maps & district comparisons
Redfin Data Center (Oct 2025) — city & county home prices, days on market and sales volume
Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI – Oct 2025) — long-term home-value trend tracking
Freddie Mac PMMS – Primary Mortgage Market Survey (Oct 2025) — mortgage-rate benchmarks
S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index (Aug Release 2025) — metro-area price trend verification
SF Chronicle Real Estate Desk & SFGATE (Sept–Oct 2025) — local market context and luxury sales coverage
Business Insider (Sept 2025) — AI-sector job growth and housing demand impacts
Newsweek (Sept 2025) — California market forecasts and inventory analysis
Realtor.com Monthly Housing Trends (Sept 2025) — national seasonality benchmarks