San Francisco Real Estate Market Update
San Francisco’s Q2 2025 housing market remains robust—exhibiting moderate price growth, accelerating condo strength, strong buyer activity, and constrained inventory. Mortgage rates hovering just under 6.8% offer a window of relative affordability ahead of anticipated policy and rate shifts. Meanwhile, reviving local sentiment, AI-driven job growth, and city-level reforms signal overall momentum, especially in higher-value segments and the rental sector.
Competition remains fierce in San Francisco’s housing market. Single-family homes continue to draw strong demand, while condos posted notable gains. Below is the updated snapshot buyers and sellers need to know this month:
Local sentiment shifting in favor of staying in SF
Realtor.com noted local listing views declined from 68.9% in 2019 to 62.9% in 2025, meaning more residents staying put amidst post-pandemic revitalization under Mayor Lurie. Mayor Lurie has spearheaded permitting reforms and office‑to‑housing conversions to tackle supply constraints, which support housing production growth ahead—though pipeline remains lean. New tax reforms boosting the SALT deduction cap could incentivize more homes to enter market, especially in high-cost areas like SF.
Mortgage Rate Trends
30-year fixed rate averaged 6.74% by late Q2, the fifth consecutive weekly decline, boosting buyer demand.
Economists from Fannie Mae and MBA forecast rate declines into 6.0% territory by early 2026, which could significantly boost buyer demand.
📊 Market At-a-Glance
Single‑family homes remain fiercely competitive—nearly 80% sold over asking, with average bid about 113% of list price.
Condo market surged on price gains and contracting inventory; nearly 40% sold above asking, average sale‑to‑list ratio ~102%.
2–4 unit Multifamily: Median price ticked ↑ 0.1% to $935K, days on market ~24, price per sq. ft. rose ~5%. Contracts +34%, sales +14%, average sale/list ~103.8%.
5+ unit Multifamily: Median price up ~15% to $2.5M, days to sale ~36, price per unit ~↑6.5% to $332,667, cap rates 5.91%, GRMs ~11.1. Sales +24%.
| 🏠 Single Family Homes Q2 2025 |
🏢 Condominiums Q2 2025 |
|
|---|---|---|
| Median Sales Price | $1,760,000 ↑ 3.5% YoY | $1,216,000 ↑ 10.5% YoY |
| Days on Market | 13 0% YoY | 27 ↓ 10% YoY |
| $/SQ. FT. | $1,038 ↑ 0.2% YoY | $1,014 ↑ 1.6% YoY |
| # For Sale (End of Quarter) | 227 ↑ 3.2% QoQ | 654 ↓ 8.5% QoQ |
| Went Into Contract | 687 ↑ 5.7% YoY | 704 ↑ 6.5% YoY |
| Properties Sold | 672 ↑ 3.4% YoY | 694 ↑ 0.9% YoY |
Sources: SFAR MLS & BrokerMetrics; Property types covered: Single-family, Condominiums, Loft condominiums, TIC, and Stock COOP. Only property data posted on the MLS is covered. All information is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed for accuracy. All data is subject to errors, omissions, revisions, and is not warranted. ©2025 Vanguard Properties. All rights reserved. Equal Housing Opportunity. DRE No. 01486075
🏘️ Neighborhood Overviews & Trends
Continues as one of SF’s most coveted single-family markets, with homes often selling at ~111–112% of list price, signaling robust buyer demand.
Days on market remain low (~13 days), and inventory stays scarce.
Sunset District
Leads the city in single-family sales relative to list price (~121.6%), pointing to fierce competition.
Tight inventory (approximately a one-month supply) and multiple offers continue to prevail.
Not spotlighted distinctly in Vanguard’s report—but as a high-demand central neighborhood, it likely sees above-market pricing, low days-on-market, and steady demand consistent with citywide trends.
Typically attracts strong buyer activity for both homes and TICs/condos.
Marina / Cow Hollow
Premium waterfront neighborhoods historically hover above median price trends—so likely above the $1.76 M citywide median. Low inventory and multiple-offer scenarios are common.
Reflects broader shifts with rising rental demand and investor interest. Areas like Mission Bay (adjacent) have seen explosive redevelopment and residential growth.
Pacific Heights / Presidio
A luxury-tier zone, expected to outperform average SF metrics with higher valuations and slower market movement—but still competitive due to limited inventory.
Potrero Hill
Known for mid- to upper-tier pricing, strong commuter access, and neighborhood appeal. Activity is likely to be strong, especially among singles/families priced near the city median ranges.
Richmond / Lake Street
Balanced between more affordable and luxury tones. Popular among families and older buyers—activity is favorable for well-priced homes.
Russian Hill / Polk Gulch / Nob Hill
Recently ranked among the nation's hottest markets, with substantial price growth and buyer interest. Part of the 94108–94109 zip codes surged 51% YoY in median list price ($962K rising to $1.45M). SFGATE
Offers a village‑like atmosphere and strong local demand. Likely strong pricing and brisk pace from buyers seeking neighborhood community, tolerant of slightly longer commute times. Wikipedia
🧠 Market Takeaways
Buyers: Strong competition persists amid limited inventory. Rate dips to ~6.5% or lower could unlock pent-up demand—locking now might yield better odds before fall. Mortgage options like 2-1 buydowns (as shared by lender Orlando Diaz in our recent video) can still give you an edge.
Sellers: Market still favors well-priced, well-marketed listings. Premium homes (especially SFHs) continue capturing multi-offer attention.
Renters: Rental market is highly competitive—bidding wars, upfront leases, and strong rent growth in neighborhoods like Mission, Potrero Hill, SoMa.
Investors: With sharply rebounding rents and tight construction pipeline, opportunities in both multifamily and luxury resale remain attractive. Tax reforms and permitting updates may also increase supply and return on equity.
Want a neighborhood-specific update or home valuation?
