Where the Market Moved in 2025

Just like our weather, real estate in San Francisco is intensely hyper-local. A "balanced" market in one district can coexist with a "frenzied" market in another. Based on Q3 data and late-year trends, here is how key neighborhoods are performing.

The Luxury Fortresses: Pacific Heights, Presidio Heights, Cow Hollow

Market Velocity: Very High.

Median Price: $4.8M - $5.7M (SFH).

Trend: These neighborhoods remain the gold standard for asset preservation. Demand here is driven by established wealth and the upper echelons of the tech sector.

Notable Activity: The sale of 2930 Broadway for $42 million in October 2025 set a new benchmark for the year, signaling that ultra-high-net-worth confidence in the city is intact. Buyers in this segment are often cash-heavy and immune to rate fluctuations. They prioritize "turnkey" luxury and view properties.

Advice: If you are selling here, presentation is everything. Buyers are paying premiums for perfection. If buying, expect off-market competition.

The Family Core: Noe Valley, Bernal Heights, Glen Park

Market Velocity: Extreme (10-14 Days on Market).

Median Price: $1.7M - $2.8M.

Trend: This is the most competitive segment of the market. Families are competing for a vanishingly small pool of move-in ready homes.

Data Point: In Bernal Heights and Glen Park, homes are selling for nearly 117% of list price.1 The "overbid" culture is strongest here. A home listed for $1.9M in Noe Valley is almost guaranteed to trade closer to $2.3M or $2.4M if it checks the key boxes (garage, flat yard, open layout).

Advice: Buyers must be prepared to waive contingencies. Sellers can utilize aggressive pricing strategies to generate 10+ offers.

The "AI Belt": Mission Bay, SoMa, Hayes Valley

Market Velocity: Accelerating.

Trend: These areas were the hardest hit during the pandemic but are rebounding fastest due to the AI boom.

Insight: Mission Bay and SoMa are the epicenters of the commercial recovery. As OpenAI and others expand their footprints, the inventory of condos in these districts is being absorbed by workers who want a "15-minute city" lifestyle. Hayes Valley remains a cultural darling, with condos trading briskly due to the vibrant retail scene.¹²

Opportunity: This is where the "value" is. Prices per square foot are still below 2019 peaks in some buildings, offering significant upside potential as the commercial recovery solidifies in 2026.

The Value Plays: Sunset, Parkside, Richmond

The Sunset and Parkside neighborhoods remained among the most competitive areas for single-family homes. Buyers continued to value space, relative affordability compared to central neighborhoods, and proximity to parks, beaches, and transit.

Market Velocity: Rapid (13-19 Days).

Trend: Buyers priced out of Noe Valley and the central districts are moving West.

Insight: The Sunset has seen aggressive price appreciation. It is no longer the "affordable" alternative; it is a primary destination. Sellers here often price intentionally low (e.g., $1.2M) to trigger massive bidding wars, with homes settling in the $1.6M range. The desire for more space and land continues to drive migration to the Avenues.¹⁸

What This Reinforces

Across neighborhoods, the same pattern repeated in 2025:

Homes that were well prepared and priced strategically sold quickly.
Buyers focused more on quality, location, and livability than speculation.
Neighborhood-level insight mattered more than citywide averages.

This is why successful buying and selling in San Francisco continues to depend on micro-market knowledge and on-the-ground experience, not just headline statistics.