San Francisco Hit Record Q3 Prices While Mortgage Rates Climbed Past 7%
San Franciso Real Estate Market Update - October 2026
Third-quarter prices set records as financing costs rose
Last month's report ended with a question: would San Francisco buyers keep competing after the Federal Reserve raised rates on September 16? The Q3 data gives a first answer, with one qualification.
The single-family median sales price reached $2,000,000, up 23.1% from $1,625,000 in Q3 2025. The condo median reached $1,269,000, up 16.4% from $1,089,800. Vanguard's report describes both as the highest third-quarter medians on record. Over the same period the 30-year fixed mortgage rate moved from 6.34% a year ago to 7.28% on October 1, according to Freddie Mac.
The qualification is the contract count. Single-family homes going into contract fell 21.0% year over year to 443, and quarter-end inventory fell 21.4% to 191 homes. Closed sales reflect contracts signed weeks earlier, so much of this quarter's activity predates the full rate move. The Q4 numbers will show how buyers responded once rates passed 7%.
What Higher Rates Mean for the Monthly Payment
Freddie Mac's 30-year average was 6.95% on September 17, 7.03% on September 24 (the first reading above 7% since January 2025) and 7.28% on October 1. A year earlier it was 6.34%.
On a $1,000,000 loan, principal and interest at 6.34% comes to about $6,216 a month. At 7.28% it is about $6,842, or $626 more each month. That difference is paid every month for the life of the loan, which is why buyers are comparing it against what they would have paid a year ago.
San Francisco buyers have so far paid higher prices into higher rates. Competition is a function of supply, and supply is thin: 191 single-family homes and 472 condos were for sale at quarter-end.
Read the Quarter, Not the Month
Vanguard's monthly view shows September single-family median prices up 10.5% from August, with market time down one day, and condo medians up 9.9%. Last month's report showed how much a single month's median moves with the mix of homes that close. The quarter is the steadier read, so this report leans on year-over-year comparisons.
San Francisco Market Snapshot: Q3 2026
| Metric | Single Family Homes | Condominiums / TICs / Co-ops | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Sales Price | $2,000,000 | ↑ 23.1% YoY | $1,269,000 | ↑ 16.4% YoY |
| Days on Market | 12 | ↓ 1 day YoY | 15 | ↓ 22 days YoY |
| $/SQ. FT. | $1,161 | ↑ 17.5% YoY | $1,126 | ↑ 15.5% YoY |
| Avg. % of List Received | 127.2% | ↑ 14.0 pts YoY | 106.9% | ↑ 6.0 pts YoY |
| % Sold Over List | 87.8% | ↑ from 71.7% YoY | 57.0% | ↑ from 32.3% YoY |
| Went Into Contract | 443 | ↓ 21.0% YoY | 649 | ↓ 9.4% YoY |
| Properties Sold | 523 | ↓ 1.3% YoY | 732 | ↑ 14.2% YoY |
| # For Sale, Quarter-End | 191 | ↓ 21.4% YoY | 472 | ↓ 29.1% YoY |
| Source: Vanguard Properties San Francisco Market Update, October 2026. Q3 2026 data sourced from SFAR MLS and BrokerMetrics. Data deemed reliable but not guaranteed. | ||||
SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES
Fewer Listings, Bigger Overbids
Sellers received an average of 127.2% of list price, compared with 113.2% in Q3 2025, and 87.8% of homes sold above asking, up from 71.7%. Price per square foot rose 17.5% to $1,161. The median home sold in 12 days.
Closed sales were nearly flat at 523, down 1.3%. The pressure shows up in supply: 191 homes were for sale on the last day of the quarter, 52 fewer than a year earlier. Pending sales fell 21.0% to 443. With that few homes available, a lower contract count tells us as much about what there was to buy as about what buyers were willing to do. Vanguard's report points to off-market sales, limited inventory and fast market times as the reasons.
CONDOS
Market Time Fell From 37 Days to 15
Median market time dropped from 37 days to 15, which Vanguard reports as the fastest Q3 condo pace on record. The share of condos selling above asking rose from 32.3% to 57.0%, and sellers received an average of 106.9% of list price.
Closed sales rose 14.2% to 732 while quarter-end inventory fell 29.1% to 472. Contracts were the soft spot, down 9.4% to 649. The median price reached $1,269,000, up 16.4%, with price per square foot at $1,126, up 15.5%.
The neighborhood spread is still wide. Buena Vista/Corona Heights condos averaged 123.9% of list price and Sunset 121.8%, while Diamond Heights averaged 96.0% and SOMA 100.3%. Renovated units, outdoor space, parking and manageable HOA dues continue to separate the fastest sales from the slowest.
In the Castro and Nearby
Castro/Duboce Triangle single-family homes had a $4,445,000 median at $1,681 per square foot and 126.5% of list price across 12 sales. Castro/Duboce Triangle condos had a $1,435,000 median at $1,209 per square foot and 110.3% of list price across 27 sales. Both are small samples, so treat them as direction rather than a forecast. Noe Valley's 23 single-family sales averaged 135.2% of list price at a $3,700,000 median.
Median Area Values by Neighborhood
San Francisco · October 2026 report. Single-family values are September 2026; condo values are Q3 2026, as labeled in the Vanguard report.
What to Watch in Q4
Three numbers will show whether higher rates are changing buyer behavior: single-family contracts (down 21.0% in Q3), the share of homes selling over asking (87.8% for single-family, 57.0% for condos), and market time (12 and 15 days). If all three hold, rates are not yet limiting demand. If contracts keep falling while inventory recovers, the market is moving toward balance.
Strategic Advice for Buyers and Sellers
For buyers
Run the payment at today's rate, not last year's. A $626 monthly increase on a $1,000,000 loan changes which homes fit a budget, so get a fresh lender estimate before you tour. Single-family buyers are competing for 191 homes citywide, and the typical sale closed above asking. Be underwritten, know your ceiling and decide in advance how much of an overbid you can support. Condo buyers have more choice (472 listings) but less time: the median condo sold in 15 days.
For sellers
Inventory is down more than 20% in both segments, which means a well-prepared listing faces fewer competing homes this autumn. Pricing still matters. Neighborhood data shows sale-to-list ranging from below asking to more than 140% of asking depending on location and property type, and a price set against last year's comparable sales can leave money behind or stall a listing. Preparation, pricing and launch strategy determine the result.
What does this market mean for your next move?
Citywide statistics establish the backdrop. The right decision depends on your property, neighborhood, timing and financial goals.
Market Data & Sources
Vanguard Properties – San Francisco Market Update, October 2026. Q3 2026 data sourced from SFAR MLS and BrokerMetrics. Property types covered: single-family homes, condominiums, loft condominiums, TICs and stock co-ops. Only property data posted on the MLS is covered. Data deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, September 17, September 24 and October 1, 2026.
Vanguard Properties – San Francisco Market Update, September 2026 (August data), and Mark D McHale & Associates, September 2026 market report.
Monthly payment figures are principal and interest only, calculated on a $1,000,000 30-year fixed loan, and exclude taxes, insurance and fees.
