San Francisco Real Estate Springs Forward
March 2026 Market Update
View towards downtown San Francisco from the Castro/Eureka Valley Neighborhood.
Spring comes early in San Francisco this year, and the real estate market is leading the way.
After a 2025 that saw the city’s market steadily rebuilding its momentum, February’s numbers — reported here in our March 2026 Vanguard Properties Market Update — confirm what I’ve been seeing on the ground for months: demand is strong, inventory is tight, and buyers who are ready to move are being rewarded for their preparation. Sellers who price and present their homes thoughtfully are walking away with results that, frankly, would have seemed optimistic just eighteen months ago.
There are a few forces driving this. The artificial intelligence boom has brought a new wave of wealth, talent, and confidence back into San Francisco. Tech workers and founders are returning. Major firms and startups are competing aggressively for talent, and those salaries are translating directly into purchasing power. Meanwhile, mortgage rates hovering in the low-6% range — the lowest level since 2022 — have helped fence-sitting buyers finally step forward. Add in continued stock market strength and expanding venture capital investment, and the picture becomes clear: San Francisco is building serious spring momentum.
These are the numbers. Here’s what they mean for you
Single Family Homes: The Story Is in the Numbers
“The single-family home segment posted the most dramatic gains. The median sale price jumped 22.7% to $1,963,000 — one of the largest year-over-year increases in recent years.”
Let’s start with the headline: the median sale price for single-family homes in San Francisco hit $1,963,000 in February 2026 — a 22.7% increase over February 2025. That is one of the largest year-over-year jumps in recent memory, and it reflects something real: this is a market where serious demand is running into a very limited supply of quality homes.
Consider what’s happening below that number. The median price per square foot climbed to $1,136 — up 14.9% year-over-year. Homes are selling in 12 days on average. And at the end of the month, there were only 136 single-family homes available for sale across the entire city — 22.7% fewer than a year ago.
The competition is real. The average seller received 116.8% of their asking price. That means buyers are routinely offering well over list, often in multiple-offer situations, and sellers who prepare their homes well and price them strategically are being handsomely rewarded.
From month-to-month, the story is equally compelling: the median SFH price jumped 18.7% from January to February alone. That is not a correction. That is a market accelerating into spring.
FOR SELLERS
You have significant leverage right now. Inventory is low, demand is high, and well-prepared homes are selling fast and above asking. The strategic move is to prepare your home properly, price it with precision, and launch in the spring window when buyer activity peaks. If you’ve been thinking about selling — the data says now is the time.
FOR BUYERS
Move with intention. At 12 days on market and 77.1% of homes selling above asking price, hesitation is costly. Have your financing fully pre-approved, know your priorities clearly, and be ready to make a strong, clean offer when the right home appears. The buyers winning right now are the ones who are prepared.
Condos and TICs: The Comeback Is Real
“The pace of sales accelerated significantly, with the median days on market dropping 27.8% to just 13 days. Condo inventory tightened sharply as well, ending the month 28.6% lower than a year ago.”
If the single-family market is the headline, the condo market is the underrated story of spring 2026 — and it is one worth paying close attention to.
The median condo sale price in February reached $1,225,000 — an 11.1% increase year-over-year. Price per square foot climbed 13.3% to $1,085. But the numbers that really tell the story of the condo market’s resurgence are the ones about pace and competition.
A year ago, 39.2% of condos sold above asking price. In February 2026, that number jumped to 52.8% — a dramatic 34.7-point increase. More than half of all condos in San Francisco sold for more than list price last month. That is not a soft market. That is a market that is regaining confidence and momentum at a meaningful rate.
Inventory is shrinking fast. The number of condos available at the end of the month was 28.6% lower than a year ago. When supply drops and demand grows, prices follow — and that is exactly what we are seeing.
FOR CONDO BUYERS
The window is narrowing, but it hasn’t closed. Condos still offer a meaningful entry point into San Francisco’s real estate market — and with AI-sector demand driving the city, the long-term fundamentals are as strong as they’ve been in years. First-time buyers and investors should pay close attention to this segment right now.
| 🏠 Single-Family Homes Feb 2026 |
🏢 Condos / TICs / Co-ops Feb 2026 |
|
|---|---|---|
| Median Sale Price | $1,963,000 ↑ 22.7% YoY | $1,225,000 ↑ 11.1% YoY |
| Days on Market | 12 ↓ 7.7% YoY | 13 ↓ 27.8% YoY |
| $/Sq Ft | $1,136 ↑ 14.9% YoY | $1,085 ↑ 13.3% YoY |
| % of List Price Received (Avg) | 116.8% ↑ 2.8% YoY | 104.7% ↑ 3.1% YoY |
| % Sold Over List | 77.1% — | 52.8% ↑ 34.7 pts YoY |
| Went Into Contract | 142 ↓ 13.9% YoY | 209 ↑ 8.9% YoY |
| Properties Sold | 144 ↑ 6.7% YoY | 180 ↑ 3.4% YoY |
| # For Sale (End of Month) | 136 ↓ 22.7% YoY | 425 ↓ 28.6% YoY |
Source: Vanguard Properties – San Francisco Market Update (March 2026)
Neighborhood Spotlight:
What’s Happening Where You Live
City-wide medians tell part of the story. But San Francisco is a city of neighborhoods — and in each one, the market has its own character and its own rhythm. Here is where things stand across the districts I know and serve.
A note on the Castro and Eureka Valley
With single-family homes selling at a median of $2,800,000 and averaging 112.8% of list price, this neighborhood is performing with remarkable strength. The buyers coming here aren’t just purchasing real estate — they’re buying into a community. The sense of belonging in Eureka Valley is something you cannot put a square-footage number on, and it continues to drive demand from buyers who left during COVID and are now returning, from those being called back to the office, and from people who simply realized that this is where they want their life to be.
If you want to understand what your specific neighborhood is doing right now — down to the block and the building type — that is a conversation I am always happy to have.
What This Means for You: Straight Advice for Spring 2026
For Sellers
The sellers who are succeeding right now are the ones who understand one fundamental truth: the moment you list, the home is no longer yours. Every decision from that point forward is based on what buyers are looking for. That mental shift — from owner to strategic seller — is what I help my clients make, and it is what separates a strong result from an average one.
The spring market rewards preparation. Here is how I approach it:
Start with the heart of the home. Buyers decide in the first few moments. The living room, the kitchen, the focal point of the space — these need to be done right, because buyers are making an emotional decision long before they are making a financial one.
Price with intelligence, not emotion. Neighborhood comps are your anchor. I study this data relentlessly so my sellers can price with confidence.
Invest in photography and presentation. Professional imagery is not optional in 2026. It is the first showing, and it determines whether a buyer schedules the real one.
Trust the timing. With only 136 single-family homes on the market citywide and demand outpacing supply, a well-prepared home launched into this spring market will generate attention.
For Buyers
I get asked all the time: “Is now the right time to buy?” My answer has been the same for over 25 years, and the March 2026 data only reinforces it.
“Yes. Do it. There’s no better time than now. It’s a great time to buy and sell — because what matters is your happiness.”
That isn’t a sales pitch. It’s a perspective I’ve developed watching hundreds of clients wrestle with the same question, often waiting for a perfect market moment that never arrives. The buyers who are winning right now are not the ones who timed the market. They’re the ones who got clear about what they wanted, got prepared, and acted with confidence.
Here is what I tell every buyer I work with right now:
Get fully pre-approved — not just pre-qualified. In a 12-day market, there is no time for financing surprises.
Know your non-negotiables. Focus on the heart of the home — the space that will matter to you five years from now, not just on the day you tour it.
Think about your neighbors. The people around you are the most important aspect of loving where you live. Neighborhood over specs, every time.
Be ready to move fast and offer strong. With 77.1% of single-family homes selling above asking, a cautious offer in a competitive situation is rarely a winning one.
Have a trusted guide at your side. Access matters — to information, to relationships with listing agents, to off-market opportunities. That is what 25 years in this city is worth.
Spring 2026: A City That Keeps Coming Back
I have lived in the Castro for nearly 30 years. I have watched this city face headwinds — recessions, a pandemic, the uncertainty that comes with change — and I have watched it come back each time with more resilience and more vitality than before.
“The sense of community runs so deep here in Eureka Valley / Castro. I know this community and what’s so special about it — and that comes out every time I’m hosting an open house or working with buyers who want to be a part of it.”
What I am seeing right now feels like a city that has rediscovered itself. The buyers returning from COVID-era escapes. The families upsizing as they grow. The empty-nesters ready to simplify and start their next chapter. The AI-sector professionals who want to be part of a community, not just a market. These are not statistics. These are the people I work with every day.
San Francisco heads into this spring season with clear momentum, tight inventory, and economic confidence that is meaningfully stronger than it was a year ago. For sellers who are ready, this is a compelling window. For buyers who are prepared, the right home is worth acting on with conviction.
If any of these numbers have you thinking about your next move — whether that’s a first home, an upgrade, a downsize, or simply getting clarity on what your options are — I would love to have that conversation. No pressure. No agenda. Just a knowledgeable, honest discussion about what makes sense for you.
This is what I have given 25 years to. And it never gets old.
Market Data & Sources
All market statistics sourced from the Vanguard Properties San Francisco Market Update, March 2026. Data compiled from SFAR MLS and BrokerMetrics. Property types covered: single-family homes, condominiums, loft condominiums, TIC, and Stock COOP. Only property data posted on the MLS is covered. All information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed for accuracy. All data is subject to errors, omissions, and revisions. ©2026 Vanguard Properties. All rights reserved. Equal Housing Opportunity. DRE No. 01486075.
